How Accurate are Students Test Score Predictions?

Research was conducted at an international university using a sample of 85 students (of whom 51 were female) attending three psychology courses. Their predictions regarding their final exam scores were collected two weeks before the final exam, and compared with the actual scores. Administered questionnaire contained items about students` age, gender, length of study, department, high school GPA, perception of their ability and motivation, along with a self-esteem measure (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, 1965) and shortened version of Rotter`s Locus of Control Scale (Rotter, 1966). Majority of students were overconfident regarding their success, with more than 60% of them describing their abilities as either above average or exceptional. Generally, more successful students were less optimistic about their future score (23%). This is in line with a wide known phenomenon of unskilled-and-unaware. Although there were no significant differences in self-esteem between males and females, males had higher score predictions than females (t=-2.01, df=82, p<.05). Freshmen students showed greater expectations compared with other students (U=389.500, Z=-2.02, p<.05), and less internal locus of control compared with their more experienced colleagues (U=364.000, Z=-2.06, p<.05). Interestingly and somewhat unexpectedly, psychology students displayed less internal locus of control compared to students from other departments (U= 517.000, Z=-2.30, p<.05). Implications of the results suggesting the aforementioned factors related to possible lack of students` metacognitive awareness for the teaching process are analyzed and discussed. Key words: expectations, predictions, locus of control, self-esteem, students